Politics Aside: Elon Musk's Alarming Predictions on AI, AVs, Robots and the Future in 5-10 Years...
Whether one admires or loathes Elon Musk for his politics and work on DOGE, his predictions about our world in the near-term future regarding AI and robots are something to hear.
Posted by Peter List, Editor | March 17, 2025
Editor’s Note: Having taken a keen interest in the effects of AI and automation on the workplace over the last couple of years, and realizing that Elon Musk and Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) are politically-polarizing figures, I am sharing this clip of an interview between Cruz and Musk for information purposes only because, if Musk’s predictions come true, it has tremendous ramifications on the workplace and the economy.
During a roughly 30-minute video podcast interview that dropped on Monday, during which Sen. Ted Cruz asked Elon Musk questions on a wide range of topics, from DOGE to attacks on Tesla, the conversation turned to AI, robots, autonomous vehicles and the near-term future (five to 10 years), Musk made several notable predictions.
You can view it by jumping to the segment here, or read the transcript (edited for clarity) below.
CRUZ: Let me ask, in 10 years, how is life going to be different because of AI for for just a normal person?
Musk: Well 10 years is a long time. In 10 years, probably, AI can do anything better than a human can cognitively…probably…almost. I think in 10 years based on the current rate of improvement AI will be smarter than the smartest human. There there will also be a massive number of robots…humanoid robots.
CRUZ: By the way, I’ve got to ask how come your robots look so much like the creepy robots from ‘I, Robot?’ Was that intentional? or just…?
FERGUSON: I was hoping he was going to say yeah just to mess with you…
MUSK: It's not meant to look like any prior robot. And we'll iterate the design. You'll be able to have a lot of the robot parts are cosmetic. You'll be able to switch out the kind of snap-on cosmetic parts of the robot, make it look like something else if you’d like. So, there will be ultimately billions of humanoid robots. All cars will be self-driving.
CRUZ: In 10 years?
MUSK: In 10 years, probably 90% of miles driven will be autonomous.
FERGUSON: Wow!
CRUZ: That fast…
MUSK: Yeah. In five years, probably 50% of all miles driven will be autonomous.
CRUZ: Now, if AI will be smarter than any person, how many jobs go away because of that, and what do people do if you've got millions of people that are losing their jobs?…A lot of people are understandably freaked out about that.
MUSK: Well…goods and services will become close to free. So, it's not as though people will be wanting in terms of goods and services…
CRUZ: So, why is that? Why are goods and services free in an AI world or close to free?
MUSK: Well, you’ll have…I don't know…call it tens of billions of robots that they will make you anything, or provide any service you want, for basically next to nothing. It's not that people will have a lower standard of living, they will have actually a much higher standard of living. The challenge will be fulfillment. How do you derive fulfillment and meaning in life.
CRUZ: Is Skynet real? Like you get the apocalyptic visions of AI…How real is the prospect of killer robots annihilating humanity?
MUSK: 20% likely…Maybe 10%
CRUZ: On what time frame?
MUSK: Five to 10 years.
CRUZ: So, soon. Like you you see a world where that's possible?
MUSK: Yeah. But, I mean, you could look at it like the the glasses 80-90% full…meaning, like, it’s 80% likely will have extreme prosperity for all.
CRUZ: Now, I guess my view is, we're in a race to win AI…we're in a race with China and my view is, if they're going to be killer robots, I'd rather they be American killer robots than Chinese. How likely…are we winning right now? Is American winning right now, and how likely is America to win the race for AI vs. China or anyone else?
MUSK: For the next few years, I think America is likely to win. Then it will be a function of who controls the AI chip fabrication…the factories that make the AI chips…who controls them? If they are controlled by China, then China will win.
CRUZ: More the factories that are making the AI chip…you think that will determine it?
MUSK: Yes.
CRUZ: And how are we doing versus China on that front?
MUSK: Well, right now, almost all the advanced AI chip factories—they call them ‘Fabs’—are in Taiwan.
CRUZ: And, what if China invades Taiwan (Musk: 69 miles away), what happens if China invades Taiwan? what happens to the world?
MUSK: Well, if they were to invade in the near term, the world would be cut off from Advanced AI chips. Currently, 100% of Advance AI chips are made in Taiwan.
FERGUSON: How fast could we put that online in America and how important is that for national security?
MUSK: I think it's essential for national security uh and we're not doing enough.
The interview goes on for several more minutes about other topics. However, one views Musk from a political viewpoint, his predictions have been echoed by others, including guests on Labor Relations Radio.